As far as I can gather the expression came first from the mouths of baseball analysts. It basically means there is no such thing as “if only,” there is only the way it is. It works, too, when the fly is presented and the fish is willing and able and the expectation is not met.

If…

…the knot held

…the hook didn’t straighten

…the fly didn’t foul

…the loop didn’t tail

…the wind didn’t gust

…the fish didn’t miss

There’s football wisdom at play here, too. Like Bill Parcells said, You are what your record says you are.